疫情对现如今秩序的影响 - 一些小感受

读基辛格《新冠病毒大流行将永远改变世界秩序》有感

现如今很多领域都开始有逆全球化的趋势了,正如五十年前东西方意识形态领域逐渐收缩展现的那样。全球化使得资本急剧增长,同时也使得社会矛盾大规模加深,灯塔国被忽视的阶级用他们的选票选出了特朗普作为他们的斗士,而东方大国则开始急剧扩张以冀获得更好的国际地位。
这是引子。

这次疫情只是加速了这一切,逆全球化的趋势已经无可避免,所以它与我们究竟有什么联系呢?
我也不知道,就像五十年前生活在美国与苏联的人民并不明白他们身处怎样的时代洪流中,二者在中东的经济对抗会死伤多少人,世界的天平转向哪里并不重要,我们终究会找到生存之道,抑或是自我毁灭。

同是,基辛格提出的问题也许我们很难避免:没有人愿意放弃所得利益,只要美国能依旧维持美元霸权,石油霸权,再大的经济损失他也能通过大量印钞来进行弥补,但其带来的通货膨胀则会转而流向世界,这是我们所有人都不愿看到的。

这是 根本利益问题

并且,美国的军事霸权,经济霸权,乃至科技霸权的地位依然没有撼动。

正如美国一样,我国也在积极寻求新的国际地位,全球化对中国而言拥有更大的好处,所以拥有新的话语权也显得格外重要。

旧的全球化时代已经结束,而新的世界人民大团结时代即将来临。


这次疫情所带来的影响也许是长达半个世纪的(因为2050我们要全面实现社会主义现代化,,,所以),这篇文章真的很像丘吉尔所发表的铁幕演说,但不同的是二者的对抗更多的也只是会在经济领域和意识形态领域,我们已经身在其中了,这个过程很漫长,其周期也许是几十年甚至上百年,但结果也许值得我们用一生去等待

PS:以上都是我随便乱写的,请勿当真

谁能想到,一切的起因竟然是一只蝙蝠 🐶


顺便贴一下原文(附上观察者网链接:https://www.guancha.cn/JiXinGe/2020_04_06_545625.shtml)

The Coronavirus Pandemic Will Forever Alter the World Order


Posted on April 3, 2020

By Henry A. Kissinger
The surreal atmosphere of the Covid-19 pandemic calls to mind how I felt as a young man in the 84th Infantry Division during the Battle of the Bulge. Now, as in late 1944, there is a sense of inchoate danger, aimed not at any particular person, but striking randomly and with devastation. But there is an important difference between that faraway time and ours. American endurance then was fortified by an ultimate national purpose. Now, in a divided country, efficient and farsighted government is necessary to overcome obstacles unprecedented in magnitude and global scope. Sustaining the public trust is crucial to social solidarity, to the relation of societies with each other, and to international peace and stability.
Nations cohere and flourish on the belief that their institutions can foresee calamity, arrest its impact and restore stability. When the Covid-19 pandemic is over, many countries’ institutions will be perceived as having failed. Whether this judgment is objectively fair is irrelevant. The reality is the world will never be the same after the coronavirus. To argue now about the past only makes it harder to do what has to be done.
The coronavirus has struck with unprecedented scale and ferocity. Its spread is exponential: U.S. cases are doubling every fifth day. At this writing, there is no cure. Medical supplies are insufficient to cope with the widening waves of cases. Intensive-care units are on the verge, and beyond, of being overwhelmed. Testing is inadequate to the task of identifying the extent of infection, much less reversing its spread. A successful vaccine could be 12 to 18 months away.
The U.S. administration has done a solid job in avoiding immediate catastrophe. The ultimate test will be whether the virus’s spread can be arrested and then reversed in a manner and at a scale that maintains public confidence in Americans’ ability to govern themselves. The crisis effort, however vast and necessary, must not crowd out the urgent task of launching a parallel enterprise for the transition to the post-coronavirus order.
Leaders are dealing with the crisis on a largely national basis, but the virus’s society-dissolving effects do not recognize borders. While the assault on human health will—hopefully—be temporary, the political and economic upheaval it has unleashed could last for generations. No country, not even the U.S., can in a purely national effort overcome the virus. Addressing the necessities of the moment must ultimately be coupled with a global collaborative vision and program. If we cannot do both in tandem, we will face the worst of each.
Drawing lessons from the development of the Marshall Plan and the Manhattan Project, the U.S. is obliged to undertake a major effort in three domains. First, shore up global resilience to infectious disease. Triumphs of medical science like the polio vaccine and the eradication of smallpox, or the emerging statistical-technical marvel of medical diagnosis through artificial intelligence, have lulled us into a dangerous complacency. We need to develop new techniques and technologies for infection control and commensurate vaccines across large populations. Cities, states and regions must consistently prepare to protect their people from pandemics through stockpiling, cooperative planning and exploration at the frontiers of science.
Second, strive to heal the wounds to the world economy. Global leaders have learned important lessons from the 2008 financial crisis. The current economic crisis is more complex: The contraction unleashed by the coronavirus is, in its speed and global scale, unlike anything ever known in history. And necessary public-health measures such as social distancing and closing schools and businesses are contributing to the economic pain. Programs should also seek to ameliorate the effects of impending chaos on the world’s most vulnerable populations.
Third, safeguard the principles of the liberal world order. The founding legend of modern government is a walled city protected by powerful rulers, sometimes despotic, other times benevolent, yet always strong enough to protect the people from an external enemy. Enlightenment thinkers reframed this concept, arguing that the purpose of the legitimate state is to provide for the fundamental needs of the people: security, order, economic well-being, and justice. Individuals cannot secure these things on their own. The pandemic has prompted an anachronism, a revival of the walled city in an age when prosperity depends on global trade and movement of people.
The world’s democracies need to defend and sustain their Enlightenment values. A global retreat from balancing power with legitimacy will cause the social contract to disintegrate both domestically and internationally. Yet this millennial issue of legitimacy and power cannot be settled simultaneously with the effort to overcome the Covid-19 plague. Restraint is necessary on all sides—in both domestic politics and international diplomacy. Priorities must be established.
We went on from the Battle of the Bulge into a world of growing prosperity and enhanced human dignity. Now, we live an epochal period. The historic challenge for leaders is to manage the crisis while building the future. Failure could set the world on fire.
Mr. Kissinger served as secretary of state and national security adviser in the Nixon and Ford administrations.

WRITTEN BY:    时维九月ememory@qq.com

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